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Prediction for CME (2023-08-30T22:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-08-30T22:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26678/-1
CME Note: Partial halo seen in SOHO with clearer fronts more to the South and the NE. Its source is possibly the eruption of a long filament from NE to SW and centered around N15W15 seen in AIA 193/304 starting 2023-08-30T20:30Z, with post-eruptive arcades and dimming extending towards SE and encompassing the disk center. No clear CME arrival observed. However, there may be a weak arrival combined with the high speed stream observed at L1 on 2023-09-01 or 02. The flux rope is possibly seen in the solar wind magnetic field components, accompanied by a drop in temperature, around 2023-09-02T18:00Z. Overall this is a weak arrival signature.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-03T05:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2023 Sep 01 1231 UTC

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 30901
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Sep 2023, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) 
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Sep 2023  10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 014 
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Sep 2023  10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 026 
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Sep 2023  10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 026

... A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at 22:12 UTC on Aug 30, directed towards the southeast. The CME is associated to a filament eruption near the disk centre and a GOES C1.4 flare, peaking at 21:26 UTC on Aug 30. The CME shows an Earth directed component and is likely to arrive late on Sept 02 â early on Sept 03. If so, it is expected to merge with the earlier CME mentioned above. ...

Lead Time: 45.45 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-09-01T07:33Z

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